Odds desk

What prediction markets price on the big macro questions: the Fed, recession, inflation and jobs. A read on where the crowd sits, never a forecast of ours.

9 markets · Polymarket · Jul 18, refreshed daily.

Rates & the Fed

Fed rate hike in 2026? 54%

24h +2pp 7d · resolves 2026-12-09

odds over the last 28 days

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? 3%

24h flat 7d flat resolves 2026-12-31

odds over the last 28 days

Growth & recession

Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? 86%

24h flat 7d +6pp resolves 2026-01-31

odds over the last 25 days

US recession by end of 2026? 11%

24h flat 7d flat resolves 2027-01-31

odds over the last 28 days

Negative GDP growth in 2026? 7%

24h flat 7d flat resolves 2027-01-29

odds over the last 28 days

Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 0% and 1.0%? 71%

24h flat 7d +16pp resolves 2027-01-31

odds over the last 13 days

Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 4% and 5%? 4%

24h -1pp 7d +2pp resolves 2027-02-12

odds over the last 6 days

Will world GDP growth be 3.1% in 2026? 14%

24h -4pp 7d -2pp resolves 2027-01-15

Jobs

Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026? 7%

24h flat 7d +1pp resolves 2026-01-10

odds over the last 20 days

The "yes" price on each market reads as the crowd's implied probability. Prediction-market odds move with money at risk, a positioning read, not our call.